2010 Early Bird Offer - 2nd person 40% discount.
If you register 8+ weeks before the course date, the 2nd person gets a 40% discount.
*Terms and conditions apply.
Course Objectives
Participants will be equipped to:
- Understand the key drivers of country and sovereign risk in both mature and emerging markets
- Identify qualitative, quantitative and market indicators of vulnerability
- Recognise the impact of country risk on other exposures
- Review the lessons learned from the current and previous crisis in various regions of the world
Target Audience
Analysts, fixed income, banking, insurance and other professionals with exposure to sovereign and country risk but lacking a formal economics background.
Content
ANALYTIC OVERVIEW
Historical context
- History of sovereign default and crisis
- Current and previous economic crises: causes, effects and differing impact on mature and emerging markets
- Sovereign issuer analysis versus country risk encompassing private sector
- Role of IMF and other multi-lateral bodies
Perspectives on analysis
- Rating agency sovereign methodology; capacity and willingness to service debt; foreign and local currency ratings
- Transfer and convertibility risk: FX and local currency ratings; country ceilings
- Market indicators: CDS, bond and equity indicators
- Structured approach to analysis: purpose, payback, risks and structure
RISK ANALYSIS
Macro economic policies and performance
- Economic growth, inflation, income levels
- Monetary and fiscal policies
- Foreign exchange regime risk profiles
- Market rates and purchasing power parity
- Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies
Public finances
- Fiscal policy and budgetary flexibility; primary budget balance; public sector
- Sustainable debt and debt service burdens
- Contingent risks: pension and health care; infrastructure
External finances
- Balance of payments: trade, current a/c;
- Export and import composition and trends
- Reliance on volatile receipts e.g. commodities or remittances
- External financing needs: exposure to volatile capital flows (portfolio capital and short term debt)
- Net external debt burden relative to GDP and current account receipts
- Central bank reserves and liquidity ratio
Structural, political and governance risks
- Savings and investment; capital flows
- Business environment, trade and economic diversity and stability
- Political risk: regime effectiveness and legitimacy; income disparity; conflict risk
- International trade and political links
- Governance: legal system; property rights; judicial process & corruption.
Financial sector
- Macro prudential and financial strength indicators
- Size and strength of banking system
- Financial sector and overall intermediation levels; debt and equity capital markets
- Regulatory responses to banking crisis
STRUCTURE
- Default and restructuring events; distressed debt exchanges
- Private claims versus official and multilateral creditors e.g. Paris club, IMF
- Export credit agency buyer and supplier credit;
- Transfer risk and country risk insurance
- Setting Country limits.
Workshop Times
Below are typical timings for our courses; upon registration we shall advise you if these have changed.
Breakfast: 8.30am
Course Start: 9.00am
Course End: Between 5.00pm and 5.30pm
Lunch starts between 12.30pm and 1.00pm, and lasts no longer than 1 hour.
Short breaks of 10 - 15 minutes are taken mid morning and mid afternoon.
*Terms and Conditions:
This applies only to two people from the same company registering for the same course on the same dates at the same time. The on-line registration form must be submitted 8+ weeks before the course start date. This offer is only applicable to new registrations, it cannot be applied retrospectively to existing participants and no refunds will be given. It can not be used in conjunction with any other offer.